Our good friends on the SEESAT-L newsgroup and, in particular Ted Molczan, posted the following to the newsgroup at 10:33 am EST this date. Thanks Ted for sharing this with the rest of us.
NROL-32 is scheduled for launch on a Delta IV-Heavy, from Cape Canaveral, on 2010 Nov 18, at 23:10 UTC, the opening of a launch window of several hours duration.
I believe the payload is the fifth in the series of what we call Mentor spacecraft, aka Advanced Orion, which gather signals intelligence from inclined geosynchronous orbits. They are among the largest satellites ever deployed, with a main antenna generally believed to span ~100 m.
I offer the following search elements, which should be considered to be very approximate. They are based on launch at 23:10 UTC.
1. Launch and GTO
The LEO and GTO orbits are the same as the ones I posted prior to NROL-26, rotated to the start of the launch window of NROL-32. Mission elapsed times are approximate.
LEO park T+00:12:48 to T+00:20:30 259 X 272 km
1 78901U 10322.98275464 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 01
2 78901 27.2800 223.3769 0010000 183.0000 359.3500 16.05000000 08
GTO T+00:28:30 to T+05:24:30 278 X 36398 km
1 78902U 10323.19115508 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 08
2 78902 27.2800 223.2969 7307000 182.9000 167.5000 2.23480000 05
2. GEO Insertion
The ~3 min burn to insert into GEO will occur about 5h24m after launch, near the first ascending node and apogee of the GTO, near 96 E. I believe that the payload's initial inclination will be between 5 and 7 deg, and have adopted 6 deg as my guess. The 78903 elset is derived from that of Mentor 4, which initially drifted westward, at nearly 0.5 deg/d.
Payload GEO - westward drift 35705 X 35943 km
1 78903U 10323.19652778 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 04
2 78903 6.0000 222.9192 0028124 186.2394 175.8683 1.00142488 08
In the event that the payload drifts eastward at the same rate, its orbit could be something like this:
Payload GEO - eastward drift 35557 X 35944 km
1 78904U 10323.19652779 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 06
2 78904 6.0000 222.9192 0046000 186.2394 175.8683 1.00405000 04
3. CCAM and Propellant Dump
About 10 min after the GEO insertion manoeuvre, the now separated 2nd stage will perform the CCAM (contamination and collision avoidance manoeuvre), followed shortly by the propellant dump, resulting in approximately the following orbit, which is derived from that of NROL-26.
Delta IV 5 m 2nd stage 35940 X 38084 km
1 78905U 10323.22430556 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 08
2 78905 6.0000 219.6655 0247122 13.9414 1.8017 0.96057559 04
Since the inclination change at GEO insertion would be less than that of NROL-26, there may be additional propellant to dispose of, which could result in some combination of lower RAAN and greater apogee, which I have not attempted to estimate.
4. Visibility Prospects
The launch phase will be an entirely Eastern Hemisphere show, but there won't be much to see, due to daylight. Depending on the time of launch, the GTO may be briefly visible from South Africa, beginning about half an hour after launch.
GEO insertion will occur ~36000 km over the equator near 96 E, but it will be day-time over that hemisphere, so I doubt anyone will see the rocket burns or cloud formed by the propellant dump, but I will leave it to prospective observers in adjacent areas to evaluate potential visibility, bearing in mind that the launch could occur up to several hours later than the launch time used as the basis
for the above elements.
On the nights following the launch, the payload and its upper stage may be found near the above orbits. I do not know the payload's destination, but would not be surprised if it heads east, to replace Mentor 1 (95022A / 23567), located at 127 E (as of the latest elements, on 2010 Jan 01). In that case, it may be near the 78904 orbit, visible from Asia and Australia. If it heads west, the 78903 orbit puts it initially within range of Asia and Australia, and South Africa by the second
week of December.
Mentor is by far the brightest satellite in GEO, normally reaching magnitude 8 - without benefit of flaring due to favourable sun angle. The brightness of Mentor was discussed here recently:
http://satobs.org/seesat/Oct-2010/0157.html
http://satobs.org/seesat/Oct-2010/0158.html
The upper stage should drift within range of Eastern Europe and South Africa by the night following launch, and within range of Western Europe a couple of nights after that. It will reach mag 10-11, when well placed for observation.
Happy hunting!
Ted Molczan
